The 2020 coronavirus outbreak has sparked severe shocks to the United States labor market. Social distancing policies, designed to slow the spread of the disease, are leading to large layoffs in specific industries, like bars and restaurants. Many more employees in other sectors face the prospect of unemployment or temporary furloughs. Despite this economic strain, employers, particularly those in Medical and Supply Chain services, are expanding to meet new demand. These sectors continue to post job opportunities long after policymakers mandated the closure of non-essential services or issued “shelter-in-place” orders.

Evidence from Texas over the past half-month reveals both predictable and unexpected trends in new job opportunities. It may come as a surprise that, even in this “lockdown economy,” there is still help wanted.

Beginning on March 18th, Texas began implementing statewide social distancing policies, though some areas began issuing such orders days earlier. Cities and counties across the state gradually adopted “shelter-in-place” orders in March.  By March 31st, a statewide order asked residents to stay home, except if they participated in “essential services and activities.”

But within the past two weeks, Texas employers posted over 66,000 new job openings.

Daily job postings are one indicator of up-to-date labor market demand, available from a variety of sources (most notably online).  The Texas Workforce Commission (“TWC”) is the state agency responsible for managing and providing workforce development services to employers and potential employees in Texas.  One service the TWC provides is access to databases of up-to-date job postings for different occupations and employers within the state. These job postings can come from the TWC itself, or from third party sites like Monster or Indeed. This information is extraordinarily valuable to data scientists.

The top 10 in demand occupations cover a variety of occupations, but are heavily concentrated in the healthcare, supply chain, and IT sectors.

Given the stresses to the healthcare system, its little surprise that hospitals are looking for more front-line staff. Registered Nurses were the highest in demand occupation, with over 3,000 new job listings since March 23rd.

 

Retail supply chains are also expanding employment.  Sales Representatives for Wholesalers and Manufacturers, with over 2,300 new listings, was the second highest in demand occupation. Other logistical occupations saw large numbers of new openings, particularly for Truck Drivers, with over 1,200 new job postings since March 23rd.

Anecdotally, supermarkets and retail chains have been hiring more employees to meet increased demand for groceries and other supplies. Evidence from jobs posted since March 23rd would support this finding, with large increases in new listings for Customer Service Representatives (over 1,700), Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (over 1,600), and Retail Salespersons (also over 1,600).

Finally, with the increase in service sector employees working from home, it should not be surprise that IT workers are also in high demand. Application Developers (over 2,100 new listings) and employees for general Computer Occupations (with 1,800 new listings) have both seen large increases in openings since March 23rd.

EmployStats will be closely monitoring daily job postings as the coronavirus outbreak continues.

healthcareThe health care and social assistance industry gained 9,200 jobs from August 2015 to September 2015. Compared to September 2014, the cumulative number of jobs added in this industry is 67,000, an annual increase of 5.0%.

Source: http://www.tracer2.com/admin/uploadedPublications/2138_TLMR-Current_Edition.pdf

Image source: http://blogs.wsj.com/health/2012/01/06/health-care-sector-adds-jobs-as-overall-employment-picture-looks-healthier/

texas-oil-and-gas-imageThe oil and gas extraction industry in Texas lost 900 jobs from August 2015 to September 2015. Compared to September 2014, the cumulative number of jobs lost in this industry is 1,800, a decrease of 1.7%.

Source: http://www.tracer2.com/admin/uploadedPublications/2138_TLMR-Current_Edition.pdf

Image Source: http://www.eliteexploration.com/texas-oil-gas-companies/

cpigeneral_inflation_2014_07             The consumer price index (CPI) went up from 237.693 in June 2014 to 237.909 in July 2014, an annualized rate of 1.09%. medical_commodities_2014_07 medical_services_2014_07 The price index for medical care commodities went up at an annualized rate of 3.99% from June 2014 to July 2014. During the same period, the price index for medical care services and hospital and related services went up at an annualized rate of 1.44% and 5.01%, respectively, whereas professional services went down at an annualized rate of 0.59%. Image source: http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-54762670/stock-photo-background-concept-illustration-consumer-price-index.html

Multi-ethnic workers wearing hardhats

Manufacturing on the rise in U.S.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Adminstration

U.S.  Department of Commerce reports manufacturing wages and employment continues to rise the U.S. The new study uses a relatively new data source, the Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI), to analyze the earnings of new hires relative to incumbent workers in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing.

They find that new hires in the manufacturing sector earn more than new hires in other industries and have done particularly well since the recession began.

Highlight from the study include:

  • New hires in manufacturing enjoy an earnings premium relative to other new hires.  T
  • At the end of 2011, the ratio of new hire earnings to incumbent earnings was about 8 percentage points higher in manufacturing than in other industries.
  • Over time, the earnings of new hires relative to incumbents have been consistently higher in manufacturing.
  • Since the recession began, real average earnings for new hires in manufacturing grew 3.5 percent, while earnings of incumbents in manufacturing grew about 2.4 percent.

Harley-Davidson  Co. said it expects to ship 259,000 to 264,000 motorcycles to dealers and distributors worldwide in 2013….In the U.S., dealers sold 48,529 new motorcycles in the quarter, up 20.1 percent compared to sales of 40,402 motorcycles in the year-ago period.

Revenue from motorcycles grew 10.7 percent to $857 million, compared to revenue of $774 million in the year-ago period….

 

More…