Category: U.S. Economy

Who is practicing law in Harris County, Texas courts? A look at the distribution of law schools of attorneys with cases in Harris County

Who is practicing law in Harris County, Texas courts?   A look at the distribution of law schools of attorneys with cases in Harris County.   The table below shows the breakdown for attorneys with business and injury related cases files in the first week of June 2013.  Not surprisingly, South Texas, Univ. of Houston, and Univ. of Texas have the highest representation.

 

schoolattended Freq. Percent Cum.
Baylor University 10 6.02 6.02
Cornell University 1 0.60 6.63
Franklin Pierce Law Center 1 0.60 7.23
Golden Gate University 1 0.60 7.83
Louisiana State University 1 0.60 8.43
Loyola Law School Los Angeles 1 0.60 9.04
Pepperdine School Of Law 2 1.20 10.24
Regent University 1 0.60 10.84
Seton Hall University 1 0.60 11.45
South Texas College Of Law 50 30.12 41.57
Southern Methodist University 8 4.82 46.39
St. Mary’s University 5 3.01 49.40
Texas Southern University 5 3.01 52.41
Texas Tech University 5 3.01 55.42
Tulane University 5 3.01 58.43
University Of Baltimore 1 0.60 59.04
University Of Cincinnati 1 0.60 59.64
University Of Hawaii 1 0.60 60.24
University Of Houston 23 13.86 74.10
University Of Michigan 1 0.60 74.70
University Of Oklahoma 1 0.60 75.30
University Of Tennessee 1 0.60 75.90
University Of Texas 29 17.47 93.37
University Of Tulsa 1 0.60 93.98
University Of Virginia 2 1.20 95.18
Unknown 5 3.01 98.19
Vanderbilt University 1 0.60 98.80
Washington University 1 0.60 99.40
Widener University School Of L 1 0.60 100.00
Total 166 100.00

#bitcoin talk (and action) is trending last couple of days

U.S. BLS data provides a closer look at what 27 year olds are doing today at work, school, and home

The U.S. BLS released some interesting statistics on what people born in the early 1980’s are doing today in the labor market, school, and at home. The findings are from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, a nationally representative survey of about 9,000 young men and women who were born during the years 1980 to 1984

Here are some of the major findings.

•Women have more education: By 27 years of age, 32 percent of women had received a bachelor’s degree, compared with 24 percent of men. Nine percent of men were high school dropouts compared to 8 percent of women.

•Everybody changes jobs a lot!.  Individuals born from 1980 to 1984 held an average of 6.2 jobs from ages 18 to 26. The
number of jobs held varies by education for women but not for men.

•Those without HS have a hard time getting a job.   High school graduates who had never enrolled in college were employed an average of 68 percent of the weeks from ages 18 to 22, and 74 percent of weeks from ages 23 to 26. In comparison, those who had dropped out of high school were employed 51 percent of weeks from ages 18 to 22, and 57 percent of weeks from ages 23 to 26.

• Most are not married. Thirty-four percent of young adults were married at age 27, while 20 percent were cohabiting and 47 percent were single. On average, young adults with more education were more likely to be married and less likely to be cohabiting. Young adults who were single at age 27 were employed 70 percent of the weeks from ages 18 to26, compared to 77 percent of weeks for those who were married and 72 percent of weeks, for those who were cohabiting.

• The moms work outside of the home. Women with children in their household at age 27 were employed 65 percent of weeks from age 18 to 26 compared to 76 percent of weeks for women without children in their home. Conversely, men tended to work more weeks if they had children in the household than if they did not (79 percent of weeks versus 73 percent).

Texas oil boom continues as Australian oil and gas exploration successfully drills in Eagle Ford area

According to a company press release, New Standard Energy Limited announced that it reached target depth at its second well in the Eagle Ford shale the Peeler Ranch-6H well.

The company stated that the they completed the wells within expected time and budget forecasts.  According to the company, the two wells were drilled in parallel lateral lengths, targeting the same Eagle Ford hydrocarbon bearing zone to maximize production and minimize associated drilling, hydraulic fracturing and production tie-in costs.

The company will shift operational focus to fracture stimulation in April.
The company anticipates stimulating both wells together using the
“zipper frac” method.  The zipper frac method alternates fracture stages between the two wells, and causes an incremental increase in fracture interaction, leading to better recovery.

More on zipper frac method:

Work life cycle labor market model shows lifetime impact of Great Recession on earnings and wages

assemblers2

 

The graph above shows the expected lifetime earnings of a person working as a manufacturing assembler.  The red line shows the earnings that a person who began working as a manufacturing assembler in 2006 could expect over their projected work life of approximately 44 years.   The blue line shows the earnings that a person who began working as a manufacturing assembler in 2010 could expect over a projected work life of approximately 44 years.  Both projected earnings streams account for projected inflation.

The work life earnings for manufacturing assemblers, projected using a life cycle labor market model, show that after the Great Recession these types of workers can expect both lower annual earnings and wage increases over their projected working life.

Methodology:

The projected earnings profiles are constructed from statistical models based on the Current Population Survey (CPS) labor market data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  The earnings profiles for assembly workers are based on the earnings of high school educated white male assemblers and fabricators, working full-time or part-time, in 2006 and 2010.

Total U.S. employment levels nearly at pre-recession level; expected to reach by mid summer.

U.S. employment almost at pre-recession levels

Total U.S. employment is nearly at it’s pre-recession level.  Right at the beginning of the recession total non-farm U.S. employment, which includes about 80% of all workers, was a little over 138,000,000.  Right now total non-farm U.S. employment is a little under 138,000,000.

Generally, non-farm employment is subject to fluctuations such as seasonal changes in weather, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools.   However, at the current rate of growth, U.S. employment can be expected to reach pre-recession levels by mid summer.

For more see:

(1) Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Establishment Survey.” BLS Handbook of Methods; last date modified July 10, 2013; http://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/.

Federal Reserve study finds no evidence that payday loans increase financial stress on borrowers

Neil Bhutta, Federal Reserve Bank Economist

There has been a strong debate about the risks and benefits of payday loans for many years now.  Some argue that payday loans are predatory and increase the stress on already strained borrowers.  Others argue that payday loans serve as a crucial source of liquidity for individuals who would otherwise have no other alternatives.  Academic research on this question has been generally inconclusive.

Neil Bhutta, an economist at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C. provides some new insights to this issue in his recent paper. Payday Loans and Consumer Financial Health.  Overall, his research, which uses a novel data set and methodology, finds no evidence that payday loans increase delinquencies or financial stress on borrowers

 

Abstract  (from paper):

In this paper, I draw on nationally representative panel data comprised of individual credit records, as well as Census data on the location of payday loan shops at the ZIP code level, to test whether payday loans affects consumers’ financial health, using credit scores and score
changes, as well as other credit record variables, as measures of financial health. In order to identify the effect of payday loans, I take advantage of geographic and temporal variation in
access arising from differences in state lending laws. In addition to standard identification  strategies based on state law variation, I also follow Melzer’s (2011) novel strategy of exploiting  within-state variation in access to payday loans due to differences in the proximity of ZIP codes  in states that prohibit payday lending to states that allow payday lending.

 

Overall, I find little to no effect of access to payday loans on credit scores and other credit record outcomes. The results contrast with previous research…

The economics of ending oil export bans: who wins and who loses

 

Source: NY TImes

A recent article in the New York Times explored the brewing debate concerning the current U.S, ban on exporting oil outside of the U.S.

In a nutshell, the producers want to export oil while the refiners want to keep the oil in the US

The refiners:  The refiners want to keep the oil in the US so they have more oil to refine.  Keeping the oil in the U.S. also keeps refining competition from abroad in check.

Keeping the export ban would possibly lower prices for oil and gas products, refiners argue.  To refiners exporting oil cuts into their bottom line.

Oil producers: On the other side of the equation the oil producers are concerned that having the restriction to only selling the United States will eventually lower their profits by reducing the price of crude oil in the U.S.

Natural gas in the price of natural gas has seen that same type of phenomena over the last decade as Shale and hydro-fracturing has led to much lower natural gas prices in the US

The concern among oil producers is that the lower price (that results from the export ban) would eventually cut into their bottom line as more and more crude oil is put on the market with the new discoveries in South Texas and other places in the United States

In the long run producers are concerned that there would be an exit of producers and or a reduction of new finds in the United States. Since the price that they would receive for crude oil would be lower.

The natural gas market is a good example of the potential impact that crude oil producer see. The natural gas industry faced and continues to face lower prices in part due to the fact that it is not as easy to export natural gas.  As a result of not being able to export natural gas readily from United States the large number of hydro-fracturing finds in the United States have stayed in United States. As a result the price of natural gas products has fallen. That is clearly the concern that is clearly the concern of the crude oil producers in United States.

Atlanta Fed President suggest that U.S. labor market has a ways to go before reach full employment; especially the shadow work force

Atlanta Fed President
In a recent speech, the Atlanta Fed Pres. suggested that the U.S. labor market has a ways to go before reaching full employment. He was especially concerned about re-engaging the workers in the ‘shadow labor market’.

The shadow labor market includes people who are still willing to work but have essentially stopped looking for work. The BLS provides some measure of this in its U-6 measure of unemployment.

As this graph shows, U6, which accounts for the shadow workers, runs at about 2x the rate of the official unemployment rate. The Atlanta Fed Pres. statements show particular concern for reabsorbing (or simply put, getting jobs for) these individuals into the workforce.

The well-worn stock price event study methodology could regain importance in securities class action litigation

U.S. News and Word Reports

As reported by numerous news outlets, there may be some significant changes in the way securities fraud class actions are handled and how economic studies of stock prices, or event studies, are used in these types of cases.

Stock prices event studies are used in these cases to statistically measure the $ effect of an event, such as change in management or other major event that affects the company, on the firm’s stock price.

In my research, for example I have used event studies to look at the effect that a merger has on the target and acquiring banks stock price.  In securities class actions, event studies are used to determine the impact of the alleged fraud committed by the defendant firm.   The basic premise is that the fraud can be measured by the change in the firm’s stock price.

According to the WSJ,

The Supreme Court removed that requirement in 1988 when it adopted the “fraud-on-the-market” theory of reliance in Basic v. Levinson . According to the new theory, the price of shares traded on efficient secondary markets reflects all publicly available information, including any misrepresentations. Because the market sends information to the investor through a market price, the courts assumed that an investor relied on the integrity of the market price—and therefore on misinformation. Specific proof of actual reliance was no longer necessary.

 

The theory became the bedrock of securities class actions brought against companies that allegedly made a false statement to public markets. All investors who traded in the public market at issue could join a class action without proof that each investor actually heard or read the misstatement.

 

One set of law professors, has proposed having the requirement of an event study that shows some impact on price be performed before a class can be certified.